In the more than four months the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation has lasted, Moscow can be said to have won one, tied one, and lost one.
First, Russia prevails and gains more control over Ukraine’s land.
The Russian Army has taken control of the Ukrainian provinces of Kherson, Mariupol, Zaporozhye, and Sieverodonetsk since Russian President Putin authorised a ground invasion in Ukraine on February 24;
Although several crucial objectives of the special military operation were not met, the Russian Army significantly damaged Ukraine’s air defence, air force, and ground forces.
Eastern Ukraine is increasingly under Russian control. The entire Donbass region, including the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, Kherson, and other areas are what Moscow seeks to fully dominate.
Russia gained complete control of the industrial city in eastern Ukraine and the Sea of Azov after capturing the aforementioned districts, which also allowed it to access the entire Eastern Ukraine Corridor.
In addition, NATO has attempted to send warships into the Ukrainian port in the Sea of Azov. NATO’s militarization of the Sea of Azov predates the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
With Kherson under Russian control, the issue of freshwater resources in Crimea was totally resolved, and with Kherson’s assistance, a blockade of the Sea of Nikolayev, a significant Ukrainian town, was made possible.
The greatest plan for Russia to restrain the West and Ukraine is to blockade the whole marine commerce and trade of Ukraine.
Because Europe and the US aim to use the conflict in Ukraine to entrap Russia and weaken its national power. Russia, on the other hand, restrains the West by obstructing commerce with Ukraine.
The inability of Ukraine to export food, grain, and cooking oil will have a significant negative impact on its economy. If Ukraine wants to continue conducting business as usual, it must rely on financial assistance from the West.
Because of this, the US has sent tens of billions of dollars in aid, and without it, the Ukrainian Army’s fight may have been over much sooner.
Second: Despite Western sanctions and counter-sanctions, Russia is unperturbed by them.
Following the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Western sanctions against Russia affected every part of its life, including the economy, currency, science and technology, sports, education, and health care.
Due to the combined sanctions put in place by Europe and the US, the Russian ruble fell sharply for a while. However, when the Moscow authorities tied the ruble to natural gas and gold, the ruble started to appreciate sharply and essentially stabilised at pre-conflict levels.
Economic sanctions imposed by the West won’t “shake” Russia’s position as a major energy supplier.
Despite the EU’s restrictions on Russian oil, numerous nations in Western Europe have requested an exception due to their heavy reliance on Russian natural gas and oil;
As a result, there are rifts and mistrust inside the EU as several member states have chosen not to join the Russian oil embargo.
Additionally, despite the West’s best efforts to persuade Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India, Indonesia, and other nations to support sanctions against Russia, these nations refuse out of self-interest. their.
In terms of sanctions, Moscow is essentially on par with the West; of course, this is only possible because of Russia’s advantages in food and energy. If Russia were to become a non-energy power, the effects on its economy would be profound, possibly leading to its collapse.
As fall and winter approach, the EU’s sanctions against Russia will become less and less effective, and Russia will gain the upper hand. If the price of natural gas in the EU increases, this will have a significant negative impact on inflation in the economies of Europe and the US.
Due to the tight economic exchanges between Europe and the US, the impact of the rise in energy prices in the EU will also be felt somewhat immediately in the US.
No of the cause, the EU gas storage has been formed; if the EU does not have sufficient natural gas reserves in the fall and winter, it will have to knock on Moscow’s door despite the embargo they put in place. At the moment, Russia is restricting the flow of natural gas to the EU.
Third: Russia suffered a setback by failing to halt NATO’s eastward advance.
Along with “liberating” the Donbass and defending its citizens, Russia launched a separate military campaign against Ukraine to block Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the expansion of NATO to the east. Swedish is not necessary; just use the word “Finnish” instead. Finland and Russia share a long border; when Finland joins NATO, this eliminates the strategic buffer zone that existed between NATO and Russia. As a result, when NATO completes its eastward expansion, it will have gained an advantage once more.
After obtaining the desired benefits, Turkey no longer objects to Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO membership. In light of this, the US will undoubtedly expedite Finland’s NATO membership promotion.
After obtaining the desired benefits, Turkey no longer objects to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. In light of this, the US will undoubtedly speed up its promotion of Finland joining NATO.
Once Finland accedes to NATO, Russia will be under NATO’s siege, at least along its western border.
Furthermore, Russia is embarrassed by the NATO membership of Finland and Sweden. Although Ukraine only “aspires” to join NATO, Russia has responded in a very harsh manner. However, when Finland joins NATO, Russia is only “concerned”?
The impact of NATO’s eastward expansion on Russia is unlikely to be as significant, and Russia hasn’t yet given up on its long-standing goals in Ukraine. However, it can be described as follows from a geopolitical standpoint:
First off, unlike Finland, Russia and Ukraine have quite different relations since there are many Russian-speaking districts in Eastern Ukraine, and Moscow cannot disregard their needs.
In the meantime, Kiev wants to lean toward the West, which is against what the people of Eastern Ukraine want. Additionally, Russia can’t stand the long-term oppression of the Russian people in the Donbass by the far-right forces of the Azov Battalion.
Second, controlling Crimea is insufficient for Russia to sustain its influence in the Black Sea since even one Crimea can become isolated.
Therefore, Crimea can only flourish if Kherson and Donbass are under your control and you link them to the East-Ukraine Corridor.
It may be claimed that Russia’s action is the result of a carefully thought-out plan; nonetheless, unless Ukraine receives significant military backing in the future, Kiev will find it difficult to reverse the situation.
Third, even if Russia requests a cease-fire, the West will not support it because of the continuing flow of weaponry into Ukraine. In particular, the US and UK have given Ukraine a large number of launchers and missiles with a range of more than 50 kilometres, which may immediately hit deep inside Russia.