According to CSIS estimate, if a confrontation occurs in the Taiwan Strait, the US may lose up to 900 warplanes.
On August 14, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a renowned independent policy research centre in Washington, USA, published the findings of a study on the harm of the parties in the situation of waist stress. The confrontation in the Taiwan Strait grows, with mainland China starting a military attack against the island.
“The United States and Taiwan will typically be effective in defending the island from the Chinese campaign,” said Mark Cancian, a senior consultant at CSIS.
Cancian made the remark after CSIS held simulation war games played on a sand table to simulate how the Taiwan Strait conflict would develop.
Cancian claims that the parties would lose hundreds of planes and aircraft carriers, and that the island of Taiwan’s economy will suffer significant harm. Both the air force and navy of China may sustain significant losses.
In the worst-case scenario, if the US joins the battle with China to defend the island of Taiwan in an all-out fight, it may lose up to 900 warplanes within four weeks, which equates to half of the country’s air force and navy’s aircraft.
However, according to CSIS analysis, China might be the one who suffers the most. “Because its assets are so vulnerable to American weapons, China’s fleet generally suffers more. In a single amphibious operation, they can lose more than 100 warships “Cancian issues a caution.
CSIS created the virtual war simulation game to accurately depict the development of combat scenarios. They assume that the fight will occur in 2026, when both sides will have the military prowess they have already shown in practise.
The 22 simulated war scenarios were run by the CSIS team of experts in 18 of them. In December, they plan to provide their final report.
Two squares are used in the CSIS war simulation to depict the western Pacific, which includes Taiwan, China, and Japan’s islands. The painted wooden pieces are made to look like military formations moving across the sand.
Based on an examination of previous fights, the team employed computer modelling and battle results tables to determine what to anticipate. To introduce a random element, they utilise dice.
The team then changed to a different map of the island of Taiwan to simulate an attack by the Chinese army while Taiwan’s defences sought to hold the island.
According to Mr. Cancian, the worst-case scenario has not been tested, in which the US is preoccupied with another global problem, such as the Ukraine or the island of Taiwan, and is sluggish to act because of disinformation and sabotage efforts carried out in the area by mainland Chinese forces.
The group intends to set up the game under many alternative presumptions, such as an assault on mainland China or consideration of Japan’s participation. The US strategy to prevent China will be improved by CSIS with the addition of more long-range missiles and the construction of bunkers in Japan and Guam to safeguard military aircraft, among other ideas.
China has stated its willingness to use force if necessary and has always regarded Taiwan as a colony in need of reunification. After Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House, visited the island in early August, tensions in the Taiwan Strait have increased. After that, Ms. Pelosi was subject to sanctions, and trade with the island was limited.
The Chinese military then conducted protracted live-fire drills throughout the island of Taiwan, escalating tensions. On August 10, the Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command declared that its drill mission surrounding the island of Taiwan had been finished, but it pledged to keep up the pressure on the island.