The commander of Ukraine’s military intelligence expects that Russia will deploy out 500,000 troops to begin a spring-summer operation in the east and south.
On January 6, General Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of the Military Intelligence Service of Ukraine, predicted that Russia will give the order to mobilise soldiers on January 15, following the end of the nation’s winter holiday.
In addition to the 300,000 reservists called up in September 2022 as part of a partial mobilisation order, Skibitsky claims that this mobilisation plan will enable the Russian army grow by 500,000 men.
He asserted, predicting Moscow will require around two months to train and construct new units and consider this to be a lengthy time, that they are concentrating on numbers of soldiers and equipment with the intention of overpowering us. For Russia, time is of utmost importance.
General Skibitsky claims that Russia’s capacity to train and arm fresh soldiers, as well as the arms supplied by the West to Ukraine, will have a significant impact on the outcome of the spring-summer offensive during the course of the next six to eight months.
In a matter of months, if General Skibitsky’s forecast comes true, Russia’s military presence in Ukraine will have virtually doubled. 280,000 Russian infantry are believed to be engaged in battle in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.
General Skibitsky’s assertion has not been addressed by Moscow, despite past statements to the contrary. President Putin referred to this as “nonsense” last month and added that just half of the reserve forces had been dispatched to Ukraine.
There is “no cause or circumstance,” according to Andrey Gurulyov, a former commander of the Southern Military District and a member of the Russian lower house of parliament, for Moscow to order a second mobilisation within the next six months. Tens of thousands of reservists are undergoing military training, he added, adding that not everyone who was previously mobilised was dispatched to the front lines.
Military analysts who support the Kremlin, however, believe that given the recent losses, Russia will be forced to order additional mobilisation in order to gather more resources, gain momentum, and open up a new front in Ukraine.
Defense Minister Urkaine speculated in December 2022 that Russia might launch a second offensive from Belarus in February. According to General Skibitsky, Belarus now only possesses one division of Russia’s about 15,000 troops, making it difficult to push Attack from this direction without adding more minions.
About 45,000 Russian soldiers were sent to Belarus in February of last year in an attempt to strike Ukraine from the north, but they were unsuccessful and forced to leave. According to Skibitsky, Ukraine’s northern fortifications are far more robust now than they were at the start of last year.
General Skibitsky made the forecast in the context of Russia enforcing a lone ceasefire from noon on January 6 to midnight on January 7, which fell on the Orthodox Christmas holiday. However, after the truce went into effect, bombardment persisted in the Donetsk area.
A number of 155 mm artillery shells were fired by the Ukrainian army into the Petrovsky neighbourhood of the city of Donetsk at noon on January 6, according to the Center for Joint Control and Coordination (JCCC), a Russian organisation that tracks raids in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. It appears that Russian forces have retaliated.