Russia’s alleged consecutive destruction of five HIMARS high-mobility missile launchers in Ukraine has surprised observers.
Russia has solved the “reconnaissance-destruction” problem.
In recent times, as the Ukrainian military’s air defense system continues to weaken, Russian medium-range reconnaissance UAVs have been actively penetrating deep into areas controlled by Kiev, detecting a large number of high-value targets. This has helped the Russian military solve the problem of “reconnaissance – detection – analysis – attack”.
Previously, due to a series of factors, Moscow forces were unable to fully reconnoiter high-value targets located deep behind the front line, leading to the Ukrainian army using some advanced Western weapons to attack, causing heavy losses to the Russian army.
To counter these Western-style weapons, Russia can of course produce some long-range precision strike weapons. But the problem is that they have the weapons, but the enemy uses guerrilla warfare, fast maneuvering, moving along the highway, firing and running away.
Starting from around the second half of 2023, the effectiveness of detecting and searching for Russian long-range targets in Ukraine began to increase significantly. Therefore, the continuous destruction of high-value enemy targets was inevitable, causing Ukraine’s loss rate to skyrocket.
Especially in recent times, the acute shortage of the Ukrainian military’s air defense system has created conditions for intensive reconnaissance operations using Russian medium-range UAVs to become more frequent. A series of high-value targets behind Kiev’s lines are regularly hit by Iskander ballistic missiles, causing significant damage.
Among these high-value targets, the Russian military places particular emphasis on destroying HIMARS or M270 missile launchers. The reason is that the US currently supplies a large number of ATACMS tactical missiles with a maximum range of 300km, which can cover the Crimean peninsula and many other important areas.
Despite the deployment of dense air defense systems in these areas, the Russian military is still under great pressure when faced with a concentrated attack by ATACMS. Even the S-300 or S-400 system itself becomes a target, with losses if the interception fails.
Even more devastating would be the impact if a missile landed in a populated area. For example, an ATACMS carrying cluster munitions crashed into a crowded beach in Crimea on June 25, reportedly killing and injuring more than 150 people.
All air defense weapons are passive, the best way to stop them is to actively attack. If Moscow can destroy the enemy’s HIMARS and M270 launchers, Russia will of course reduce pressure on the rear and save a lot of costs.
“Shoot and run” also cannot escape Russian surveillance
Some time ago, the force discovered an M270 launcher in Nikolayev province and followed the convoy back to the temporary base. They then quickly used Iskander missiles to destroy it, destroying a large amount of ammunition, shocking the West.
Recently the Russian military announced that it had discovered and destroyed a Ukrainian HIMARS missile launcher in Kherson, this time not one but three vehicles at once.
However, it should be noted that this is information provided by the Russian side and it is difficult to judge the specific car model in the video, but when the image analysis equipment cannot fully confirm, there will be other judgment methods to refer to.
First of all, based on the way some of the Ukrainian military vehicles were moving in the video and their location before the attack, it can be seen that the incident took place south of the village of Klapaya in Kherson province, currently controlled by Kiev.
The military convoy initially moved at high speed on a nearby road, which some believe is consistent with the operating characteristics of a HIMARS missile launcher.
Of course, no one said that wheeled vehicles cannot move at high speed on the roads of the Ukrainian rear, and this is completely meaningless. But the information that appeared later is very important.
If this convoy was a regular transport and supply vehicle, it would have had to move between the rear and front lines. The closest village to the Russian-controlled area, Krapaya, on the other side of the Dnieper River, was 22 km away and was converted into a key defensive area during the Kherson campaign, the existing fortifications having been built at that time.
But now that the Russians have been pushed back across the Dnieper, it is clear that Ukraine has no need to deploy a defensive line here. Even the village of Krapaya is very small, with a pre-conflict population of less than 200, and it cannot survive as a significant supply base.
After all, Kiev forces now controlled the entire west bank of the Dnieper River, as well as all the villages there. According to common logic and established military practice, if they wanted to build a supply base, it would have to be in a large residential area.
Of course, the Ukrainian military convoy in the video has no direct connection to the village of Krapaya itself, but is simply moving along a nearby road. Its final location is the tree line south of the village of Krapaya, and the deployment is carried out along this line.
The forest belt is often used by Kiev forces as a hiding place for infantry and artillery and as a firing position, however, it is more than 20km from the front line and is currently separated by the Dnieper River. Therefore, the Ukrainian Army will not build infantry positions there.
The mobile vehicle is heading towards the tree line to launch the firing mission, which is actually typical of the HIMARS missile launcher.
That is, HIMARS usually maneuvers at high speed on the highway, turns into the trees to find cover to launch the bullets. After launching the bullets, quickly maneuvers back to the highway to complete the retreat. This is the main tactic of HIMARS: “shoot and run”.
Why does HIMARS have to “shoot and run”?
Just over 20km from the front line is not a safe distance for launchers like HIMARS, although the ATACMS has a long enough range to ensure a safe launch. But if the Ukrainian military wants to strike deep into Russian targets in the Crimean peninsula, for example, it will have to accept the risk.
Therefore, the launch site of HIMARS or M270 must be as hidden as possible and close to the road. The Ukrainian military vehicles we saw this time, both meet the above mentioned characteristics.
Since they are not here to provide logistical supplies, Ukrainian infantry is not currently stationed here. The vehicles in the video are clearly temporarily deployed, given the maximum range of the ATACMS, firing from here, could cover the Crimean naval port of Sevastopol.
The vehicles used by Ukraine here are of course most likely HIMARS missile launchers. And judging by the explosion and fire effects after the Iskander missile strike, the vehicle that was attacked was clearly loaded with missiles.
Therefore, except for the video image that cannot directly confirm that it is a HIMARS launcher, in fact, from other analytical angles, it can be speculated that there is a high probability that this type of complex was hit.
Of course, whether or not three HIMARS launchers were destroyed is another matter.
Maybe not up to 3 vehicles, but at least there is because the final video image cannot be confirmed, so the logic of analysis and conclusion is: based on comparison with other information, it is likely that the Russian army successfully attacked the HIMARS launcher, but because the image is unclear, the attack cannot be completely confirmed.
Similarly, immediately after this attack, the Russian military announced that it had destroyed two more HIMARS launchers and their accompanying support vehicles in the Nikolayev region. The situation was similar to what was mentioned above.
