The possibility of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is very high, as both sides are ready to go to war.
Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia Muslim political party and militant group, is one of the most heavily armed non-state organizations in the world, largely supported by Iran.
Hezbollah emerged during the Lebanese civil war of the 1980s, initially formed to oppose the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon, which lasted until the Israeli military withdrew in 2000.
Since then, Hezbollah’s military wing has grown significantly and is considered more powerful than the Lebanese national army. The group has been involved in numerous conflicts, including several major clashes with Israel, and its extensive arsenal has been a focal point of regional tensions.
A series of pager and walkie-talkie explosions in Lebanon that left more than 3,000 people dead or injured, including many Hezbollah members, has pushed tensions in the Middle East to a dangerous new level.
Israel was accused of being behind the incident, but they denied it.
Then, on September 23, the Israeli military said it had attacked 1,300 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and the campaign was not over yet. This could be considered Israel’s largest airstrike ever against Hezbollah.
Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said that among the targets were long-range cruise missiles with a range of hundreds of kilometers and medium-range rockets with a range of up to 200 kilometers. Hagari added that Israel did not rule out the possibility of launching a ground offensive in Lebanon.
The Israeli cabinet on September 23 approved the declaration of a “special state” across the country. The international community is concerned that the current tensions between Israel and Hezbollah could spill over into a regional war, affecting efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict in Gaza.
Hezbollah has issued a strong warning to Israel and declared that it is prepared for all-out conflict.
Hezbollah’s military capabilities
Hezbollah’s military strength lies in its extensive arsenal, which is believed to include more than 150,000 rockets and missiles. These range from unguided rockets to precision-guided missiles.
Hezbollah has also enhanced its capabilities by adding precision guidance systems to its unguided rockets, significantly increasing their accuracy and threat level to Israel.
In 2021, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the group had 100,000 fighters, although this may be an exaggeration.
By 2022, the Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that the group could have as many as 20,000 active-duty troops. Its fighters are highly skilled, having fought extensively in Syria in support of President Bashar al Assad. Similarly, the CIA World Factbook estimates that Hezbollah has as many as 45,000 fighters by 2022, about 20,000 of whom are active-duty troops.
Missiles and ground attack missiles
Unguided rockets made up the bulk of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal during its last war with Israel in 2006, when the group fired some 4,000 at Israel, mostly Katyusha-style rockets with a range of 30km.
The biggest change in Hezbollah’s arsenal since 2006 has been the expansion of precision guidance systems, and the group is likely to equip additional missile guidance systems in Lebanon.
Hezbollah has Iranian missile models, such as the Raad (Arabic for Thunder), Fajr (Dawn) and Zilzal (Earthquake) missiles, which have heavier and more powerful warheads and longer ranges than the Katyushas.
Rockets fired by Hezbollah at Israel in the Gaza conflict since October include Katyushas and Burkan (Volcano) rockets with 300-500kg explosive warheads.
The Iranian-made Falaq 2 missile, first used in June, can carry a larger warhead than the previously used Falaq 1 missile.
Anti-tank missile
Hezbollah made extensive use of anti-tank guided missiles in the 2006 war and has deployed them again, including Russian-made Kornet missiles.
The group also used an Iranian-made guided missile called the “al-Mas,” according to a report by the pro-Iranian Arabic television station al-Mayadeen . The report by Israel’s Alma Center for Research and Education said the al-Mas can hit targets beyond visual range in an arc-shaped trajectory, allowing it to strike from above.
The report said the missile is part of a family of Iranian-made weapons based on the Israeli Spike missile family.
Air defense missile
Hezbollah has shot down Israeli drones multiple times during the conflict with surface-to-air missiles, hitting Israeli Hermes 450 and Hermes 900 drones. While Hezbollah has long been known to possess anti-aircraft missiles, these attacks marked the first time the group has used such a capability.
In another first, Hezbollah said it had fired on Israeli warplanes, forcing them to leave Lebanese airspace, without saying what type of weapons it had used.
Drone
Hezbollah has carried out numerous suicide drone attacks and says it is using drones that drop bombs that can be reused multiple times.
In some attacks, UAVs were sent to distract Israeli air defenses while others flew at the targets.
Hezbollah’s arsenal includes domestically assembled Ayoub and Mersad models, which analysts say are cheap and relatively easy to produce.
Anti-ship missile
Hezbollah first demonstrated its anti-ship missiles in 2006, when it hit an Israeli warship 10 miles off the coast, killing four Israeli crew members and damaging the ship.
Sources familiar with Hezbollah’s arsenal say that since the 2006 war, the militant group has acquired Russian-made Yakhont anti-ship missiles with a range of 300km. Hezbollah has not confirmed that it has this modern and powerful weapon.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
The IDF consists of about 173,000 active-duty soldiers and has called up an additional 300,000 reservists to deal with the recent escalations.
The Israeli military is supported by a substantial budget of approximately $24.3 billion and extensive support from the United States, including financial and advanced military technology.
The IDF’s arsenal includes some 2,200 tanks, mostly Merkava platforms, supported by some 300 towed guns, 650 self-propelled guns, and 300 artillery-missile systems such as the US-developed M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System.
The Israeli Air Force, considered the strongest in the region, operates advanced aircraft including F-15, F-16 fighters and the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter purchased from the US.
The IDF is also known for its special forces, such as the Sayeret Matkal unit, which plays a key role in counterterrorism operations and high-value targets.
These forces would likely be indispensable in any large-scale conflict with Hezbollah, focusing on neutralizing high-level fighters and rescuing captured Israelis.
The IDF has far superior conventional military power, but Hezbollah also has significant capabilities.
Newsweek spoke with William F. Wechsler, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program. “Hezbollah is a very well-funded force. And they fight hard,” he said.
He argued that the situation facing Israel and Lebanon is “fundamentally different” than when the two countries went to war in 2006.
Hezbollah has penetrated the Lebanese armed forces so deeply that it should be considered a unit of Hezbollah rather than an arm of the state, he said.
Hezbollah is estimated to possess some 200,000 shells, far exceeding the number held by Hamas.
The group is described as possessing military capabilities equivalent to an average European country, with sophisticated weapons and skilled fighters trained alongside Russian and Iranian forces.
The IDF benefits from technology, comprehensive support infrastructure, and a well-organized command structure.
Israel’s defense budget and advanced military hardware give it a significant advantage in conventional warfare. However, Hezbollah’s ability to launch rocket barrages and conduct guerrilla warfare poses a particular and challenging threat to Israel’s security.
“Israel is stronger than Hamas. People should be concerned that Israel is vastly stronger than Hamas… Hezbollah is weaker but they have the ability to do real damage to Israel,” said Wechsler.
The risk of war is imminent.
The possibility of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is high, with both sides ready to engage militarily in a significant way. “There will be another war between Israel and Hezbollah. That’s inevitable, given the nature of Hezbollah,” Wechsler said.
The United Nations on September 23 expressed “deep concern” about Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.
The head of the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) Catherine Russell commented that the increasing violence represented a “dangerous escalation” for civilians.
A US State Department spokesman said the agency is in contact with Lebanese and Israeli officials around the clock to defuse the situation and prevent a full-blown conflict.
The spokesman stressed that the US does not want to see further escalation in the region by “any party”, and affirmed that the US is ready to protect its allies and partners in the region.
Meanwhile, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty blamed Israel’s actions for escalating tensions in the region, warning of the risk of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict spreading throughout the region.
“The current tensions risk escalating into a full-scale war in the region,” Mr. Abdelatty told AFP.
The Egyptian Foreign Ministry called on the international community and the United Nations Security Council to “intervene immediately” to prevent dangerous escalation.
