Comparing the military power of Israel and Iran: Who is superior?

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered a “direct attack on Israel” after the assassination of Hamas’ political leader. The red flag of revenge was raised at the Jamkaran mosque.

Iran’s warning to Israel has raised fears of an all-out war between the arch-rivals.

Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, both sides launched retaliatory attacks against each other, but only to the extent of “warning” and not escalating tensions further.

Specifically, Israel is believed to have launched an attack on Iran on April 19, nearly a week after an unprecedented drone and missile attack by Tehran. Iran’s attack was in retaliation for a suspected Israeli airstrike that killed seven Iranian commanders in Syria on April 1.

Israel has advantages in both offense and defense.

Experts say that in the event of a direct conflict, Israel would have the military advantage, both offensively and defensively. But they say the threat posed by Iran’s drone and missile arsenal should not be ignored.

During decades of sanctions, Iran has invested heavily in developing its domestic weapons programs, creating cheap and effective drones as well as more advanced ballistic missiles.

John Krzyzaniak, a research associate at the Wisconsin Nuclear Arms Control Project, said Iran’s missiles “pose a serious threat” to Israel. Meanwhile, Tehran’s combat and suicide drones could “cause disaster for civilians” if fired in large numbers.

Despite this, Israel maintained military superiority.

Experts say that in addition to Israel’s operational and intelligence advantages over Iran, the country also has a nuclear deterrent. Israel possesses nuclear weapons, with some estimates suggesting it has around 90 warheads.

In the April 13 attack, Iran fired more than 300 drones and cruise and ballistic missiles at Israel. Tehran claimed it did not use some of its most advanced weapons. The attack appeared to be well-orchestrated and was not intended to cause significant damage or casualties.

Israel said most of the drones and missiles were intercepted with the help of the US, UK, and Jordan. A few missiles made it through Israeli defenses and hit an air base, causing minor damage, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said that Iran simultaneously launching more than 100 ballistic missiles was “something quite big”.

“I’m really not sure if this has ever happened in war before, and it makes me wonder how much larger the scale could be,” expert Hinz told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.

Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense expert at defense intelligence firm Janes, said Israel’s defense systems performed well against Iranian missiles.

But Binnie said the reliability of Iran’s weapons appeared to be a “major factor.” US intelligence estimates that about half of Iran’s missiles fail during launch or in flight.

The Israeli attack on April 19 appeared to expose a weakness in Iran’s defenses. Tehran said small drones were used, suggesting the attack was carried out from inside Iranian territory.

Israel’s advanced fighter jets give the country air superiority. But experts say Israel faces a number of obstacles, including a lack of aerial refueling aircraft. Israel also needs permission to cross the airspace of several countries to reach Iran.

Experts say that if war breaks out, Israel is likely to deploy long-range missiles against Iran. Meanwhile, Tehran’s air defense system has not yet been used in combat.

Given Israel’s military advantage , Iran is likely to continue using unconventional warfare and asymmetric capabilities, including the so-called “axis of resistance”: Iran’s loose network of proxy forces and militant groups supporting it against Israel, experts say.

Iran shows off the power of its ballistic missile systems (Photo: Townhall).

Comparing the military power of Israel and Iran

According to the 2024 Global Firepower Index, the Israeli and Iranian militaries are not too far apart in terms of overall military strength.

Iran is ranked 14th in the global rankings, followed by Israel in 17th place.

The index also includes a direct comparison between the two armed forces. According to the New York Times , Iran has the numerical advantage with at least 580,000 active troops and about 200,000 well-trained reservists, while Israel has 169,500 active troops and 465,000 reservists.

The number of tanks and armored vehicles is similar. Iran has 1,996 tanks and Israel has 1,370, including the Merkava, considered the best designed and most armored main battle tank in the world.

However, given the geographical situation, these are not the most relevant factors in the event of an armed conflict between Israel and Iran.

The two countries are separated by neighboring countries such as Iraq and Jordan, and the distance between Jerusalem and Tehran is about 1,850km.

“In reality, a conflict would not take the form of a classical war, but would be a long-distance engagement,” said Fabian Hinz, a Middle East expert at the IISS.

He added that an armed conflict between Israel and Iran would be fought primarily by air.

Air Force plays an important role

According to the Global Power Index, Israel clearly outnumbers Iran in terms of air power. In total, the Israeli military is equipped with 612 combat aircraft, while Iran has 551.

In addition to numbers, the quality of military aircraft is also an important factor, Hinz told DW . Israel possesses some of the most advanced fighter jets in the world, such as the F-15, F-16 and the F-35 stealth fighter.

In the event of a conflict, air power would play a crucial, perhaps even decisive, role for Israel.

“However, on Iran’s side, the aircraft are of little significance as it is almost impossible to renew the fleet due to sanctions,” he said, adding that Iran was able to buy some aircraft in the 1990s and now wants to buy some Russian-made aircraft.

“But fundamentally, they knew they couldn’t keep up with the Israeli air force,” said Mr. Hinz.

That is why Tehran has focused so much on developing missiles and drones. But there are still questions about its ability to withstand Israeli airstrikes. “I don’t think it will be very successful,” Hinz said, adding that “Iran does not have a strong defense shield.”

Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16 fighters (Photo: IAF).

No absolute protection

However, recent Iranian drone and missile attacks have shown where Israel needs to improve, said Alexander Grinberg, an Iran expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic and Security Studies.

“In principle, it is quite easy to shoot down such UAVs, because they are not very fast,” he told DW , adding that this could even be done with a simple machine gun.

However, it is not only the type of UAV but also the number that matters.

“On Sunday night (April 14, when Iran attacked Israel), it was clear that Israel also had to be able to withstand a massive UAV attack and they had to be prepared for that,” Grinberg said.

Several missiles were shot down by Israel’s allies.

Iran’s attack also demonstrated that there is no perfect missile defense system, military spokesman Shalicar said.

“Whether you fire 300 or 3,000 missiles, eventually some will always penetrate the defense shield, which is why the hit rate is not 100 percent but about 99 percent,” he said. “This makes it even more important to have a functioning domestic civil defense system, in other words an early warning system and air defense shelters.”

Iran’s missile arsenal is considered quite powerful. The International Institute for Strategic Studies has reported that Iran has one of the largest arsenals of ballistic missiles and drones in West Asia, including cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles, as well as ballistic missiles with ranges of up to 2,000km. They have the capability and range to strike any target, covering all of Israel.

The game-changer: Hezbollah

However, an armed conflict with Lebanon-based Hezbollah would be another military challenge for Israel.

Hezbollah may be the most heavily armed non-state group in the world, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Estimates of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket arsenal range from 120,000 to 200,000, and according to CSIS research, Iran would be able to quickly supply Hezbollah militias in the event of war.

The bulk of their arsenal consists of short-range unguided missiles, although the militia has also significantly improved its access to longer-range missiles, said Hinz.

The group could also attack from Syrian territory, he added.

“This means that a large part of Israel would be threatened by Hezbollah attacks in the event of an escalation of the conflict,” he said.

Israel will be able to use the Iron Dome system to counter missile attacks from Lebanon, Hinz said, adding that “in general, these defense systems are always ready to use and they work extremely well, but in my opinion, the number of missiles is still the main problem.”

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