The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran has sparked worries about a potential widespread conflict in the Middle East. This raises the question: what is the current state of defense capabilities in these two nations?
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that the missile attack on Israel on the evening of October 1 is concluded, unless Israel chooses to retaliate. In that case, he warned that Iran’s response would be “stronger and more decisive.”On that evening, Iran launched over 180 missiles at Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan.
Iran emphasized that the missiles were aimed exclusively at Israeli military installations.In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cautioned of impending retaliation, declaring, “Iran made a big mistake tonight, and they will pay the price.” The United States has pledged support for Israel, ensuring that Iran would face “serious consequences” for the attack. The Pentagon confirmed that it had deployed approximately a dozen interceptor missiles against the Iranian missiles.Professor Simon Wolfgang Fuchs from Hebrew University noted that the IRGC issued a stern warning: if Iranian oil refineries were targeted, they would retaliate against U.S. oil infrastructure in the region. He added that Israel seems uninterested in de-escalating the situation.If Israel were to strike Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities, the entire Middle East could descend into unpredictability.
Axios reported that Israel might respond to the October 1 missile attack by targeting key strategic infrastructure, such as Tehran’s oil rigs. However, President Joe Biden has indicated he will not support an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.Professor Fuchs believes many Israeli politicians view this moment as a unique opportunity to significantly weaken Iran and reshape the Middle East. The question remains: how prepared are Iran and Israel to defend themselves against potential attacks?
According to The Military Balance 2023, published by the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Iran boasts a military force of 610,000 active personnel. This includes 350,000 in the army, 190,000 in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), 18,000 in the navy, 37,000 in the air force, and 15,000 in air defense, along with an additional 350,000 reserve troops. Military service is mandatory for Iranian men over 18, though some exemptions apply.
In contrast, Israel has 169,500 active military personnel, comprised of 126,000 in the army, 9,500 in the navy, and 34,000 in the air force, with a reserve force of 465,000. Israel mandates compulsory military service for most men and women over the age of 18, again with certain exemptions.Israel’s air defense relies heavily on the Iron Dome, a sophisticated system equipped with radar technology that detects incoming rockets, assessing their speed and trajectory.
The control center determines whether a rocket poses a threat to populated areas; those deemed low-risk are allowed to land in open fields, while missiles identified as threats are intercepted. Each Iron Dome launcher is armed with 20 interceptor missiles, with 10 Iron Dome batteries deployed throughout Israel. Additionally, Israel has systems for intercepting medium- and long-range missiles, such as David’s Sling, which can target missiles with ranges between 40 km and 300 km, and the Arrow system, which is effective against missiles up to 2,400 km.Iran, for its part, introduced the Azarakhsh air defense system in February, a short-range, low-altitude system that translates to “lightning” in Persian. Equipped with radar and electro-optical systems, Azarakhsh is capable of detecting and intercepting targets and can be mounted on vehicles.
Iran’s arsenal includes various surface-to-air missile defense systems, featuring over 42 Russian-made S-200 and S-300 systems, as well as domestically produced Bavar-373 long-range missiles. It also has more than 59 MIM-23 Hawk, HQ-2J, and Khordad-15 medium-range missiles, along with 279 Chinese-made CH-SA-4 and 9K331 Tor-M1 short-range missiles.
