The risk of war is closer than ever as both sides have made strong statements after Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel in October.
On the night of October 1, Iran unexpectedly carried out a large-scale missile attack targeting important Israeli intelligence and military bases. According to the Times of Israel, the Israeli military (IDF) admitted on October 2 that Iranian ballistic missiles hit several of its bases on the night of October 1. Tel Aviv announced that it would have a terrible response to Iran.
However, the question is whether Israel will strike again as it did before against its “heavyweight” opponent Iran. At the same time, the scenario of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) military action will be effective and strong enough to make Tehran hesitate or will it start a war that will cause both sides to suffer.
Israel is not just making empty threats.
Before considering the current tension between Israel and Iran, let’s look back at Israel’s glorious history of fighting the Arab bloc with a famous victory: the Six-Day War of 1967.
At that time, with ingenuity, Israel suddenly launched a thunderous air attack, almost “wiping out” the Egyptian, Syrian, and Jordanian air forces, thereby creating an absolute advantage in the sky to help the IDF win a resounding victory finally.
In the current crisis with Iran – an opponent with the strongest potential in missiles and attack drones in the region – Israel has also considered a scenario of using troops strong enough to make Tehran hesitate or at least minimize the opponent’s ability to retaliate.
Israel is reportedly considering a range of options for retaliatory strikes against Iran and is still consulting with the US on the matter. One of those options is to try to inflict serious financial or economic damage on Iran by attacking its oil facilities, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
A source familiar with the matter said that Israel has not yet decided on a date for the attack, but it is expected to be “soon.” However, former U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen said on October 6 that the Israeli military could attack Iran’s nuclear facilities or other Iranian military targets within the next 48 hours. Israeli and Iranian officials have not yet responded to this information.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu firmly asserted on October 2 that Iran had made a big mistake by launching a barrage of missiles at Israel and that Tehran would face the consequences. “We follow the established rules: whoever attacks us, we will attack them back,” he said.
Despite statements or predictions about when the IDF might launch an attack, Israel’s current moves seem to be based on changing circumstances for a final decision.
Because if Israel were to strike, its key allies, especially the United States, have said they would not participate. Newsweek reported that when speaking to the media on October 2, President Biden was asked if he supported a scenario in which Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities in retaliation against Tehran. The US leader said: “The answer is no.”
This makes attack scenarios and its chances of success against an opponent located far from its territory and with formidable defensive capabilities truly unlikely to be successful, despite the IDF’s superior and historically proven combat capabilities.
What is the scenario for “game of death”?
Talking is always easier than doing. Israel also has the ability to attack Iran at various levels.
At a non-escalatory level, Tel Aviv could strike at Iranian positions of interest abroad. Similar actions have been seen in Israeli missile strikes against Iranian military and intelligence officers in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.
The next option is to attack military positions within Iranian territory with or without prior notice, but not targeting strategic positions.
With Israel’s air and missile capabilities, such a response could be quick and highly effective. However, Israel would not act hastily but “at the right time”. In this scenario, the IDF could use suicide UAVs “in tandem” with air-to-ground cruise missiles like Delilah to achieve maximum destructive efficiency.
This can be seen as a “face-saving” attack with minimal escalation variables. After that, Tehran will certainly respond with a rain of missiles and suicide drones combined with attacks from the “resistance axis” such as the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Shiite Muslim groups in Iraq and Syria. However, the scenario may stop at retaliation between the parties and is unlikely to push the conflict to a full-scale level.
The most dangerous scenario is that the IDF could attack strategically valuable Iranian locations, including Iran’s nuclear facilities in central Iran.
No matter how effective the Israeli strikes are, they will trigger a full-scale Iranian counterattack with all the resources at hand and an uncontrolled escalation that could easily lead to a war spreading across the entire Middle East, causing huge losses. This is not in the interests of either Tel Aviv or Tehran. Even if either side wins, it will be a Pyrrhic victory.
A Pyrrhic victory is an idiom used to describe a victory in which the winning side suffers terrible losses equivalent to those of the losing side.
Iran has “made its move”, and Israel is weighing its response
Immediately after Iran’s missile attack, Israeli military officials immediately made a strong statement, Israel will demonstrate “incredible attack capabilities” in response to Iran’s actions.
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi did not specify exactly when the retaliation would take place, but said Israel would “choose the right moment” to respond.
Along with that, despite the missile attack from Iran, the Israeli air force still carried out retaliatory attacks on targets in the Middle East on the night of October 2, especially Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
“Tonight we will strike, the results of which will be seen throughout the Middle East,” Mr. Halevi declared.
On this issue, Israeli Prime Minister’s Office advisor Dmitry Gendelman said that Tel Aviv will attack anyone who threatens: “Israel is ready for all situations, both defensive and offensive. We will attack anyone who acts or plans to harm us.”
Assessing Israel’s response capabilities, Wall Street said: “Tel Aviv has sent a clear message that it will respond to any attack on Israeli territory, no matter how small or large… In particular, Israel has made it clear that it may carry out direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear or oil infrastructure.”
Faced with escalating tensions, the US has sent aircraft carriers, amphibious ships, destroyers and fighter squadrons to the Middle East, to deter and be ready to protect its ally Israel if an Iranian attack scenario occurs.
On the other hand, Washington is also said to be trying to send a message to Tehran to restrain itself. However, sources say that Iran seems determined to respond, despite the possibility of this scenario sparking war.
In fact, Iran wanted to use the October 1 attack to “save face” after Israel’s actions in assassinating the leader of the Hamas political wing in Tehran or the large-scale airstrike that killed many leaders of the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, as well as the climax of the IDF sending special forces to attack across the border into Lebanon.
Tehran has “made its move”, the remaining issue is up to Israel and its close allies to decide. Pushing the conflict to a new level is completely unprofitable for both Tel Aviv and Tehran at the moment.
