Future of Russia’s Su-57 Fighter with Western Sanctions

Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analysis group, reports that 31 months of Western sanctions on Moscow have halted the supply of essential components required for Russia’s production of the Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighter.

The Su-57 is a large, high-speed, twin-engine stealth fighter developed by Russia as a direct response to the American Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. Equipped with radar-evading capabilities, the Su-57 can carry a variety of guided air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, including short-, medium-, and long-range air-to-air missiles.

This advanced aircraft has an estimated operational range of 3,500 km without refueling, enabling it to conduct long-range missions and dominate contested airspace.NATO has nicknamed the Su-57 “Felon” or “Brutal” due to its superior air combat capabilities. Russia designed the Su-57 to replace older fighters such as the Mikoyan MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-27. The Su-57 first flew in 2010, 20 years after the debut of the world’s first fifth-generation fighter, the F-22 Raptor.

Over the next decade, Russia produced 10 upgraded prototypes of the Su-57. In 2019, a contract was signed to produce 76 Su-57s, each costing approximately $50 million.Despite these efforts, Russia lags behind the U.S. in fifth-generation fighter production. While Lockheed Martin manufactures over 150 F-35s annually, Russia delivered just 10 Su-57s in 2022 and 11 in 2023, highlighting the gap in production capabilities.

Fourteen years after the Su-57’s first flight, Russia has only about 30 Su-57 stealth fighters in its arsenal, with nearly a third being prototypes. This is a small number considering Russia’s air force operates around 1,000 fighters, and has lost about 100 in combat with Ukraine since February 2022.One significant issue is that the delivery rate of new Su-57s has slowed between 2023 and 2024. Normally, as production processes improve, the rate of new fighter jet deliveries increases.

However, the Su-57 is an exception to this trend, with Western sanctions, particularly from the U.S., slowing down the modernization of Russia’s air force.Additionally, Russia’s air force has lost two Su-57s in accidents, and a Ukrainian drone attack in June 2023 on the Akhtubinsk State Flight Test Center destroyed at least one more Su-57 on the ground.Frontelligence Insight, after examining Russian documents, uncovered key bottlenecks in Su-57 production. Critical components like the WA36 power attenuator and the non-replaceable PLR7 60-12 and EA-PS 3150 battery packs are part of the German-made MPPU-50 system, which calibrates the Su-57’s communications.

Russia used to import these components legally but now must source them through third parties due to sanctions, slowing production and likely increasing the cost per aircraft.As early as 2020, some analysts recommended that the Kremlin reconsider its air force modernization plans and explore the option of halting Su-57 production altogether due to these increasing challenges.

“Instead of focusing on producing dozens of Su-57s over many years, Russia could opt to replace its aging MiG-29s with new MiG-35s, which are much cheaper to produce,” suggested a commentator from VPK, a Russian defense industry newspaper.However, even this shift to less advanced fighters might not benefit Russia.

“The Su-57 program is intended to help the Russian air force catch up with the U.S. air force, but Moscow is taking too long to produce a limited number of Su-57s, while the U.S. is far ahead technologically,” remarked David Axe from The Telegraph.At the same time, deliveries of the Lockheed Martin F-35 “Lightning” stealth fighter to the U.S. military and its allies have resumed after a yearlong pause.

The U.S. Air Force is also planning to produce a new fighter jet to replace its fleet of 180 F-22s, with the next-generation fighter potentially taking flight before Russia completes its original order of 76 Su-57s.

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