According to many sources, Iran may launch a retaliatory attack on Israel before the US presidential election on November 5.
Avia-Pro news site cited satellite data and US military intelligence on November 1 saying that Iran was detected moving Sejjil, Fattah-1, and Shahab-3A/B missile launchers. However, the source did not disclose specifics.
According to US intelligence agencies, Iran could launch a retaliatory attack on Israel’s strategic infrastructure this weekend or early next week, ahead of the US presidential election.
Several major US media outlets also said Iran would take action within the next few days. “Iran’s retaliation will be decisive and very painful,” CNN quoted a high-ranking source as saying.
The retaliatory attack is believed to have been coordinated between the military and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Information about Iran’s attack signal is still quite confusing. While most sources believe that Tehran will act before the US election, others believe that Iran will postpone its plan until after the election to avoid developments that could create an opportunity for former US President Donald Trump to be re-elected.
Additionally, this time, Iran is likely to choose to carry out multiple missile and drone strikes from Iraqi territory with the support of proxy forces to avoid further retaliation.
An Israeli military source said the Israeli military was at a “high level of readiness” for a potential attack from Iran. However, Israel was “still assessing the decision-making process in Iran” to determine if and when a retaliation would take place.
Israeli officials believe that the airstrike campaign on October 26 has put Iran in a dilemma because it has significantly reduced Tehran’s offensive and defensive capabilities.
AP quoted analysts’ comments pointing out that Iran’s current dilemma is to accept concessions and appear weak or respond strongly militarily to demonstrate strength not only to its people but also to proxy forces in the region.
If Iran retaliates strongly at this time when its air defense system has been significantly weakened and its missile and drone stocks have been depleted, it will be vulnerable to further Israeli attacks. Moreover, pro-Iranian militias in the region have also been weakened and are no longer able to deter Israel.
However, according to the Times of Israel, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has asked the country’s military to prepare to respond to Iran after assessing the damage caused by Israel’s airstrikes as too great and impossible to ignore.
Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hossein Salami said Iran would respond with “unimaginable” consequences for Israel. A senior adviser to Iran’s Grand Ayatollah also warned that Iran’s response would be a regret for Israel.
