Iran has fired a significant number of ballistic missiles at a limited number of targets in Israel, intending to overwhelm the enemy’s multi-layered air defense system.
On the night of October 1, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the launch of “Operation True Promise 2,” targeting three Israeli military bases near Tel Aviv, specifically Nevatim, Tel Nof, and Hatzerim airports. The IRGC claimed that 90% of its ballistic missiles successfully struck their intended targets.
According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Iran fired over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, while the Pentagon estimated the number to be nearly 200. The IDF reported that most of these missiles were intercepted and stated that the Israeli Air Force remains fully operational and committed to continuing aggressive strikes in the Middle East.However, videos released by the Israeli Foreign Ministry showed that only a few Iranian missiles were intercepted mid-air, with several hitting the ground and causing significant explosions.
Geographic data indicates that the areas featured in these videos included Tel Nof and Nevatim airports, highlighting the impact of the missile strikes.
This situation raises concerns about the effectiveness of Israel’s multi-layered air defense network and suggests that “overloading” tactics may have enabled Tehran to breach the defense systems during the October 1 attack.Tom Karako, a missile defense expert at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted that the number of Iranian missiles that penetrated Israel’s air defense on October 1 was significantly higher than the previous attack in April, which involved over 300 missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
“This attack seems to be an overwhelming strike focused on a limited number of targets within a confined area rather than a widespread assault. We have previously warned that such tactics could strain Israel’s robust multi-layered air defense system,” stated missile defense expert Tyler Rogoway on the U.S. military website War Zone.Israel boasts an air defense network designed to counter a variety of threats, including rockets, suicide drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.
The Iron Dome system, renowned for its high interception rate, primarily targets short-range threats like rockets and mortars, which are slow, low-flying, and follow predictable paths. Consequently, it is less effective against faster ballistic missiles.
Israel’s current ballistic missile shield includes the long-range Arrow 2/3 and medium-range David’s Sling systems.
The Arrow 2 missile is equipped with a fragmentation warhead designed to destroy ballistic missiles in the stratosphere at altitudes exceeding 20 kilometers. This capability is crucial for preventing the spread of radioactive or biochemical materials to Israeli territory.In contrast, the Arrow 3 missile employs advanced optical sensors to identify targets. Instead of carrying explosives, it utilizes high maneuverability to intercept and destroy targets through kinetic energy.
The Arrow 3 system is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles in space before they re-enter the atmosphere, ensuring greater safety for the region.Dov Raviv, known as the “father of the Arrow shield,” asserted in 2004 that each Arrow missile has a 90% success rate in destroying its target. In the event of a miss, the Arrow battery can launch two additional missiles in rapid succession, with one missile capable of being redirected to another target if the initial enemy missile is neutralized.”This advanced capability allows the Arrow system to achieve an impressive intercept rate of up to 99.9%, meeting the requirement that only one in 1,000 incoming missiles can escape. Each Arrow battery can also simultaneously engage and shoot down more than five ballistic missiles launched within a 30-second window, a capability currently matched only by the United States and Russia,” Raviv explained.
Beneath the Arrow missile defense system lies the David’s Sling complex, a collaborative effort between Israel’s Rafael and the U.S.’s Raytheon. Designed to intercept missiles at a maximum range of 300 kilometers, David’s Sling aims to replace the Patriot systems, which Tel Aviv has deemed ineffective against modern threats.
The David’s Sling battery is equipped with 12 Stunner missiles, which employ a direct collision kill mechanism for maximum effectiveness. One of the standout features of the Stunner missile is its multi-channel seeker system, utilized during the target approach phase. The missile’s nose, resembling that of a dolphin, incorporates a thermal imaging sensor, an electro-optical seeker, and an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar seeker. This advanced design significantly enhances the Stunner’s capability to overcome enemy countermeasures, making it highly effective against challenging targets such as ballistic missiles and stealthy cruise missiles.
During the October 1 attack, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have deployed Fattah hypersonic missiles, asserting that they successfully “destroyed the Arrow 2/3 radar complex.” Hypersonic missiles are classified as weapons that travel at least five times the speed of sound (Mach 5), exceeding speeds of 6,200 km/h. Any missile that flies faster than the speed of sound but does not reach Mach 5 is generally referred to as a hypersonic missile.
The IRGC introduced the Fattah hypersonic missile in June 2023, heralding it as a “major leap forward in the missile sector.” Iranian officials claim that the Fattah has a range of 1,400 kilometers and a maximum speed of approximately 15,000 km/h—14 times the speed of sound—enabling it to “penetrate any defense shield.”
Fabian Hinz, a specialist in Iran’s missile program at the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), stated that a piece of debris recovered following the recent attack displayed a wing structure akin to that of the Fattah-1 hypersonic missile and the Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile.”These two missile models utilize the same propulsion system and are difficult to differentiate. However, it can be confirmed that Iran employed some of its most advanced missiles during the assault,” Hinz noted.Conversely, some experts contend that the Fattah missile may be a conventional ballistic missile rather than a hypersonic weapon.
They argue that it lacks the capability to maneuver continuously at high speeds within the atmosphere, which is essential for bypassing enemy air defenses.According to Hinz, the Fattah missile is equipped with a large maneuverable reentry vehicle. While this type of warhead resembles a hypersonic glide vehicle, it is less maneuverable and primarily follows a fixed trajectory in the mid-flight phase. The Fattah can, however, suddenly increase altitude as it approaches its target, creating an erratic flight path that enhances its range, allows for directional adjustments, and complicates interception by enemy missile defense systems.”This marks an advancement for the Fattah missile over Iran’s older models,” Hinz added.
Launching nearly 200 missiles within minutes demonstrates that Iran aims not only to overwhelm Israel’s air defense network but also to deplete its opponent’s costly ammunition reserves.A former financial adviser to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) revealed that each Arrow missile costs approximately $3.5 million, while each Stunner missile from the David’s Sling system is priced at around $1 million.
“This means Israel potentially spent hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars, to intercept about 100 Iranian missiles during the October 1 attack,” the adviser stated.As of now, Israel has not disclosed the specific damage caused by the Iranian missile strikes or the exact number of missiles intercepted. However, Tel Aviv reported that the attack “did not cause major damage to infrastructure” but resulted in the death of one civilian and left two others injured.