Israel may face some challenges if it decides to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
As Israel considers options for a retaliatory strike against Iran, speculation is growing that it could target Tehran’s nuclear facilities.
However, such a large-scale attack would raise many complex issues and, according to experts, may require direct US support.
“Israel can damage Iran’s nuclear program without US support, but it is unclear whether it can carry out the kind of frequent and sustained attacks on its own that could seriously damage Iran’s nuclear program,” said Farzan Sabet, a researcher at the Graduate Institute of Geneva.
US President Joe Biden has spoken out against such an attack. “The answer is no,” Biden replied when a reporter asked if he supported an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Tensions are escalating as Israel and Iran, longtime regional rivals, are on the brink of all-out war, a war the United States is trying to prevent.
Iran launched about 180 missiles at Israel on October 1. Most of these missiles were intercepted by the Israeli and US militaries, according to the New York Times .
The Iranian attacks were in response to Israel’s escalating campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran’s most powerful foreign proxy.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran “made a big mistake” and would “pay the price”.
Compared to oil and gas facilities, an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could have much more serious consequences, including Iran’s race to build nuclear weapons.
Israel would also have to overcome several obstacles if it wanted to coordinate a major attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the first of which is distance.
According to the Financial Times , the distance between Israel and Iran’s main nuclear bases is more than 1,600km.
An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would therefore require significant resources. According to a 2012 report by the US Congressional Research Service, Israel would need about 100 aircraft to carry out a nuclear strike. This number is equivalent to nearly one-third of Israel’s total 340 combat aircraft.
In addition, Iran’s nuclear facilities are scattered across many different locations, with some of the most important sites located in heavily fortified underground bunkers.
Experts from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists magazine said that targeting Iran’s important underground nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz would require the use of heavy US GBU-57A/B bunker-buster bombs.
To carry out this nuclear strike, Israel would also have to neutralize air defense systems and locations that Iran could use to counterattack.
“Israel could inflict serious damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities on its own, but it probably wouldn’t be able to destroy the deepest underground facilities without US support,” said Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Another option Israel could consider is to launch limited strikes on Iran.
Robert Dover, professor of international security at the University of Hull, said Israel could attack logistics routes used to support Iran’s nuclear program.
“Israel is more likely to attack the logistical lines for Iran’s nuclear program, which could be done at the same time as their current military operations,” said Dover.
Expert Sabet also agreed with the above assessment, saying that Iran’s military bases, secondary nuclear facilities, and economic targets are likely to become targets of Israeli attacks.