Mr. Putin replaced General Shoigu, how could the war in Ukraine change?

ISW believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin changed the leadership of the Ministry of Defense to strengthen preparations for a long war in Ukraine and possibly be ready for a future confrontation with NATO.

Experts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that on May 12, President Putin nominated Mr. Andrei Belousov to replace General Sergei Shoigu as Russian Defense Minister, transferring Mr. Shoigu to the position of Secretary of the Federal Security Council replacing Mr. Nikolai Patrushev.

Analysts say this high-level reshuffle after the presidential election clearly shows that Putin is making significant strides in mobilizing the economy as well as the military-industrial base to support the protracted conflict in Ukraine and perhaps preparing for a future confrontation with NATO.

Belousov’s nearly decade-long tenure as Economy Minister, and his recent involvement in managing numerous innovation projects in the military industry, added experts. and UAVs prepared him well to lead the apparatus of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

“Mr. Belousov has a reputation as an effective technocrat and inside sources say he also has a positive relationship with Mr. Putin,” the report said.

Experts added that General Shoigu replacing Mr. Patrushev as Secretary of the Security Council is consistent with the overall policy of the Kremlin boss.

In addition to transferring Mr. Patrushev, President Putin reappointed most of the heads of Russia’s main security agencies, showing that he still maintains a core of loyal security forces.

Notable comments in ISW’s May 12 report:

First, President Putin replaced General Sergei Shoigu with Mr. Andrei Belousov as Russian Defense Minister on May 12, moving Mr. Shoigu to the position of Secretary of the Security Council, and taking over the position of Mr. Nikolai Patrushev.

These high-level reshuffles following the presidential election make it clear that Putin is making significant strides in mobilizing the economy and military-industrial base to support the protracted war in Ukraine and and perhaps preparing for a future confrontation with NATO.

Second, Belousov’s nearly decade-long tenure as Economy Minister and his recent involvement in managing numerous defense industry innovation projects and drone development prepared him well to lead the troubled Russian Ministry of Defense.

Third, the offensive efforts of Moscow’s forces to capture Volchansk (northeast of Kharkov) are largely the result of the West’s “policy of silence” prohibiting Ukrainian forces from using systems developed by the West. they provide to attack legitimate military targets inside Russian territory.

Fourth,┬áKiev forces continued to carry out repeated attacks on Russia’s oil and military-industrial infrastructure, causing some pro-Moscow military bloggers to complain about the apparent failure and the persistence of the Russian military in stopping these attacks.

Fifth, a number of German politicians from different political parties expressed support for using NATO interceptor missile systems stationed in member countries to shoot down enemy drones. in Western Ukraine.

Friday, Moscow forces recently made confirmed advances near Liptsy and Volchansk in the northern Kharkiv region.

Saturday, former head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin emphasized that the Russian army is still having difficulty repelling attacks by Ukrainian UAVs on the front.

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