The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has predicted plans for the Russian army’s expansion in Luhansk, focusing on the Liman battle as a key part of their strategy.
“Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead northeast of Liman as part of a consolidation effort aimed at facilitating the capture of Borova and Liman in the coming months,” ISW stated.
The assessment notes that geolocated footage from April 1 shows Moscow forces recently advancing northwest from Novolyubovka (northeast of Liman), potentially capturing the village in a significant gain during this Russian offensive in Donbas.
The Russian Armed Forces (RFAF) have made notable advances southeast from Noviye, while Ukrainian military expert Konstantin Mashovets mentioned on March 31 that Moscow forces had reached the southern outskirts of Katerynivka.
“Russian troops advanced across the Zherebets River to the west (right) bank in early January, gradually expanding their bridgehead. They have recently established a relatively stable position from which to conduct further offensive operations,” the report says.
“It appears that Russian forces are using their significant manpower advantage to advance into the area,” the ISW assessment added.
Experts believe the RFAF could use its expanded foothold northeast of Liman to support the capture of Borova or Liman in the coming months. Additionally, Moscow forces may attempt to consolidate these bridgeheads to create a stable position for future attacks southeast from Borova.
ISW assessed: “The RFAF has attempted to advance east-southeast of Borova after advancing northeast in January, potentially establishing a bulge northeast of Liman to support future attacks on the southern edge of Novosergievka – Druzhelubovka – Novy Mir line…”
“The Moscow command may attempt to bypass Ukrainian defenses, forcing the AFU to retreat and opening the way to further advances east of Borova and deeper into Luhansk region,” the report continues.
Russian Forces Expand Bridgehead Near Liman
Recent reports indicate that the Russian military is expanding its foothold in northeastern Liman. This strategic move is seen as part of a larger effort to capture key regions in the Donbas and Luhansk areas. The ISW highlights that Russian forces are capitalizing on their significant manpower advantage to push further into Ukrainian-held territory. This includes recent advances in the direction of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, where Moscow forces are pushing to secure better positions for future assaults.
Experts suggest that Russia may continue to use its expanded bridgehead to press its advantage and potentially force Ukrainian forces to retreat from critical areas. The long-term goal appears to be the full capture of Luhansk, a key objective of the Russian Federation.
Ukraine’s Defensive Strategy and Potential Retreat
While Russia’s offensive intensifies, Ukraine faces tough decisions. Military analysts suggest that the Ukrainian forces might be forced to withdraw from some of these contested areas in the face of the Russian advance. Ukrainian leaders must weigh the consequences of retreating to more defensible positions versus launching a counteroffensive to regain lost ground.
The Ukraine defense strategy has focused on holding key positions along the Oskol River and in areas like Liman and Borova, but Moscow’s encroachment may force adjustments to these strategies. As Russian forces continue their expansion, the question remains: Will Ukraine regroup and fortify its defenses, or will it attempt to push back and recapture lost territories?
Moscow’s Long-Term Goals in Luhansk and Donbas
The battle for Luhansk is a critical aspect of Russia’s broader goals in Ukraine. According to ISW reports, Moscow is aiming for the complete control of Luhansk and its strategic position in the Donbas region, which would serve as a significant advantage in future negotiations or military actions. Analysts believe that Russian control of Luhansk would mark a significant milestone in the long-term Russian military objectives, possibly changing the balance of power in eastern Ukraine.
Further consolidation in the Luhansk region would enable Russia to build a more stable military foothold from which it could push deeper into Ukrainian territory. With the capture of Borova and Liman, Russia could also extend its influence across the Kharkiv region, strengthening its position in the Donbas and potentially forcing Ukraine to abandon crucial strategic points.
Impact on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure and Future Peace Talks
In addition to military operations, Russian forces continue to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid have escalated tensions and caused significant damage, especially as both sides engage in peace talks. The Russian military’s targeting of energy sites may be a tactic aimed at destabilizing Ukraine further, putting additional pressure on its government during ceasefire negotiations.
As the war grinds on, experts speculate that Russia may seek to leverage its territorial gains in Luhansk as a negotiating tool. Moscow could use the retention of Luhansk as leverage in future peace talks, strengthening its position in the complex geopolitical situation. However, these developments could also prompt further international intervention and increase support for Ukraine from its Western allies.
The Future of the Conflict: Will Ukraine Continue to Resist or Yield?
The situation in Luhansk and Liman remains fluid, with both sides vying for control over critical territories. The Russian military’s advance has created a tense atmosphere, and it is uncertain whether Ukraine will continue to resist or whether a strategic withdrawal may be necessary to preserve forces for a counterattack.
The coming months will likely see intensified fighting as both sides vie for control of the Luhansk region. The decision Ukraine faces—whether to fortify its defenses or withdraw—could determine the future trajectory of the conflict. As Russia pushes for full control of Luhansk and Donbas, the international community watches closely, hoping for a resolution that will bring peace and stability to the region.
Conclusion
The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2025 will hinge on the ability of Ukraine to adapt to the rapidly changing military situation. As Russian forces continue their expansion and seek to capture strategic locations like Liman and Borova, Ukraine must make critical decisions to either hold its ground or retreat to more defensible positions. The stakes are high, not only for Ukraine but also for regional stability in Eastern Europe, and the broader geopolitical landscape.
