Russia has enough strength to retake Kursk, Ukraine counterattacks in Pokrovsk

The Kremlin asserted that Russia has enough resources to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region and protect other border areas. Meanwhile, Ukraine seems to have begun a counterattack in Pokrovsk.

On September 7, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia has enough forces and resources to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk border province and protect Belgorod.

Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry said it had stopped the advance and inflicted heavy losses on Ukrainian forces in Kursk. According to Moscow’s figures, Ukraine lost about 10,400 soldiers and more than 80 tanks in the month-long Kursk offensive.

Meanwhile, Russia claims to continue making progress on the battlefield in Ukraine.

On the social network X, Sputnik quoted a senior military source as saying: “The Russian missile attack on a training center in Poltava on September 3 left about 500 military specialists dead and injured, including forces from Europe.”

“Among the dead and wounded were servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard, including communications specialists, operators of electronic warfare systems, electronic intelligence, drones, as well as foreign forces from Poland, France, Germany and Sweden, who trained Ukrainian servicemen,” the report added.

Ukraine launched an offensive into Russia’s Kursk border province on August 6, taking Russia and its Western allies by surprise. It is estimated that Ukraine has mobilized more than 12,000 troops for this operation and currently controls about 1,300 square kilometers of territory here.

After a month, Russia has yet to fully push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk. Russian troops continue to slowly advance around the strategic city of Pokrovsk and other areas of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

Experts say Russia appears to lack the reserves to repel Kiev’s forces there. They say President Vladimir Putin does not see the Kursk offensive as a big enough threat to withdraw troops from the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine – his priority target.

“Russia would very much like to continue its offensive on Pokrovsk without diverting resources from Pokrovsk to Kursk,” said Nico Lange, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis.

Unlike Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces have built a strong fortification system, other areas of Donetsk are less well protected and could be more vulnerable to Russian attack if Pokrovsk falls.

Ukraine counterattacks in Pokrovsk

While the advance at Kursk slowed down, even stopped, the Ukrainians seemed to be starting a counterattack on the Pokrovsk front.

According to Forbes magazine, the Ukrainian army has 4-5 reserve brigades operating on the Pokrovsk front, which have begun to carry out small counterattacks to slow down the Russian advance and push back the Russians. Each brigade has about 2,000 soldiers and hundreds of military vehicles. These units are described as “intact and well-equipped”.

Some of these reserves were now engaged in fighting along the last trench line and fortified towns about 10km from Pokrovsk and important supply routes.

“The Ukrainian armed forces have begun a counterattack,” one blogger commented. This is helping to stabilize the front line, at least for now.

However, Forbes sources said that Russia’s 2nd Combined Arms Corps, which includes dozens of regiments and brigades, outnumbers Ukrainian forces near Pokrovsk by about four to one.

Forbes predicts no immediate drastic changes around Pokrovsk.

Pokrovsk lies on a key road used by the Ukrainian army to resupply other outposts such as the cities of Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region.

Ukrainian forces have been retreating along the Pokrovsk axis since at least mid-February, after Russian forces breached the defenses of the fortress city of Avdiivka at the eastern end of the axis.

Control of the city, considered the “gateway to Donetsk,” would allow Russia to disrupt Ukraine’s supply lines along the eastern front and intensify its campaign to control the city of Chasiv Yar, which has a higher geographical position and offers the possibility of controlling a larger area.

Limiting Ukrainian military access to the road network around Pokrovsk would make it difficult for Kiev to hold the territory, allowing Russia to consolidate its positions and advance to the front line.

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