Experts warn that Ukraine’s control of part of Russia’s territory in Kursk could affect Moscow’s railway system and its role in the war in Ukraine.
Last month, BelZhD, the union representing Belarusian railway workers, reported that as of August 12, Russian railways had asked their Belarusian counterparts not to send trains to stations on the Orel-Kursk line. This essentially disrupted rail services between Belarus and Russia toward Smolensk and Kursk.
“A large number of trains are parked at the Moscow Railways stations (part of Russian Railways) in the Smolensk region. This situation also affects the pace of freight train dispatch on these routes,” the Belarusian trade union said.
The need to reroute trains from Kursk also caused problems. “The Ukrainian breakthrough has led to disruptions in Russian rail operations,” European business news site be IntelliNews reported.
BelZhD said Russia used a large part of the Moscow Railway’s train fleet to move its troops to Kursk.
According to expert George Barros from the ISW organization (USA), the information shows that the Russian railway system may be dealing with disruptions caused by Ukraine’s partial control of Kursk.
“We have seen reports from Belarusian railway workers about how Russia has mobilized the rail transport system in the southwest of the country to prioritize military logistics in response to the situation in Kursk,” Barros said.
Before Ukraine’s attack on Kursk, Russia’s railways were already facing challenges. Russian bloggers said Western sanctions on the export of ball bearings to Russia had hampered maintenance operations and caused a shortage of locomotives.
Russian railways admitted in 2023 that a lack of locomotive maintenance and spare parts had caused 42,600 train cancellations last year.
Railways are one of Russia’s key logistical routes in the war with Ukraine, as Russia is one of the largest countries in the world. They can transport large quantities of weapons and soldiers long distances from one end of the country to the other. If the railways are disrupted, the constant delivery of supplies to the points will require a large number of trucks to replace them.
“The Ukrainian offensive could force Russia to reallocate military logistics routes to the Kharkov front through neighboring regions. This would lengthen the time it takes to supply from the Leningrad and Moscow regions,” said Callum Fraser, an expert at the British think tank RUSI.
On the other hand, Ukraine appears to have collected data on Russia’s rail system, which could make it easier for Kiev to disrupt operations, Fraser noted.
“Russia’s digitization of its railway infrastructure, including aspects such as an integrated infrastructure management system, means that Ukraine was able to access data on arms shipments from a seized railway station. There may be more weaknesses in this system that Ukraine could exploit,” he said.
Additionally, with Ukraine claiming control of over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory around Kursk, they now have what is essentially a base inside Russia from which to launch missiles and drones at targets deeper into Russian territory such as airports, supply depots, and even railway bridges.
