The UK predicts the time and damage Russia may face in controlling the four breakaway regions in Ukraine fully.
General Sir Roly Walker, the British Army chief, has said it could take Russia five years to gain control of all four annexed regions in Ukraine. He estimates that Russian forces could suffer 1.8 million casualties to achieve that goal.
Russia has annexed four regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia through referendums not recognized by Ukraine and the West. However, Russia still cannot fully control the territories of these regions.
“If they continue to fight like this, it will take Russia five years to achieve its minimum goal in four regions. At the current attrition rate, they may have to suffer 1.5-1.8 million casualties to achieve that, with billions of dollars in weapons,” he said.
It is not clear what basis the British general made the above prediction and Russia has not commented on this information.
His comments come as Russia continues to gain momentum on the eastern front. Ukraine says Russia is suffering heavy losses in its territorial gains, but it is difficult to verify the exact casualty figures provided by one side of the war to the other, so it could be a psychological tactic.
According to experts, Russia is using a tactic of attrition against Ukraine to find a loophole to attack. Russia has the upper hand because it has an overwhelming military and weapons potential despite Kiev having support from the West.
A study published in May by consulting firm Bain & Company revealed that Moscow is producing artillery shells at more than three times the rate of all NATO members combined but at a quarter of the cost.
Commenting on this information, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in June: “It is true that Russia has been able to build up its defense industry faster than we thought. It is true that NATO allies have taken longer than they should have to increase production.”
The reason Western countries fell behind, he explained, was because “it was after the Cold War that the West really started to rebuild its defense industry.”
