The US is seeking a solution to ease tensions among Israel, Iran, and the Axis of Resistance, but calming the Middle East is a challenging endeavor.
Nearly a week after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the group remains resolute in its fight against Israel, refusing to release Israeli hostages until the Gaza conflict concludes. Meanwhile, clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah have intensified along the Israel-Lebanon border, with Israel reporting over 3,200 strikes on Hezbollah targets since October 1.
The situation is further complicated by concerns of Iranian ballistic missile retaliation against Israel.In response to these escalating tensions, Washington—Israel’s key ally—is working to de-escalate the situation, particularly as the US approaches a critical presidential election.
America strives to stabilize the Middle East
On October 21, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the Middle East for his 11th visit to the region in just over a year. The US State Department announced that this trip aims to promote diplomatic solutions to halt the fighting in the Gaza Strip and de-escalate tensions in Lebanon.
On October 22, Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel, where he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and several other Israeli officials.
President Biden’s trip to the Middle East is anticipated to last a week, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken also scheduled to visit Jordan and Qatar. US officials indicate that Blinken’s focus will be on plans for post-conflict reconstruction and governance in the Gaza Strip, which are crucial for achieving a ceasefire.A senior State Department official stated that Blinken will address Israel’s anticipated retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on October 1.
This issue is of significant concern to the US, as Israeli retaliation against Iran could disrupt the oil market, leading to higher prices and escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.Iran’s mission to the United Nations recently claimed that President Biden has demonstrated “tacit approval and explicit support” for Israel’s potential response to Iran. The mission warned that Iran would view the US as “complicit” if it supports Israel with advanced weaponry, a move that could complicate the upcoming US elections and necessitate greater efforts from Washington to restrain Israel.
In addition to Secretary Blinken’s trips to the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, the US president’s special envoy, has made over five visits to Israel and Lebanon in the past year.On October 21, Hochstein met with Lebanese officials to discuss the conditions for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
He urged all parties to fully implement UN Resolution 1701, which mandates that southern Lebanon be free of any troops or weapons except for those belonging to the Lebanese state.Last week, Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin jointly warned Israel in a letter that the US could reduce military aid if the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip does not improve.
According to CNN, Secretary of State Blinken's visit occurs during a period of strained relations between the US and Israel, with Washington warning that it may halt weapons supplies to Tel Aviv if the humanitarian situation in Gaza does not improve.Additionally, the leak of US intelligence regarding Israel's battle plans poses a risk to the relationship between the two nations.
Will Washington’s efforts yield results?
So far, the US has struggled to persuade Israel to cease hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon or to return to the negotiating table.
Just hours after the death of Hamas leader Sinwar, President Biden stated, according to The New York Times, that “it is time to end the war.” The US president and his advisers have started formulating a strategy aimed at calming tensions in the Middle East by advocating for a ceasefire in Gaza and urging Israel to halt its attacks in Lebanon.
However, Prime Minister Netanyahu disagreed, stating, “Evil has suffered a heavy blow, but our immediate task is not yet complete.” He indicated his intention to continue pursuing Israel’s original goal of completely eliminating Hamas from the Gaza Strip.This disagreement is not the first instance of opposing views between President Biden and Netanyahu. Over the course of a year of conflict, the Biden administration has often expressed frustration with Netanyahu’s unwavering determination to prevail.
The tension reached a peak in early August after the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, which Tehran attributed to Israel. Following this incident, Biden called Netanyahu with a firm message, urging him to de-escalate tensions in the region and to shift immediately towards negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza.Recently, on October 19, former President Donald Trump revealed that Netanyahu had told him he would not heed President Biden’s advice regarding the conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah. “Bibi did not listen to Mr. Biden, and Israel is in a stronger position than it was three months ago,” Trump remarked, using Netanyahu’s nickname.
Experts suggest that the “strong position” referenced by former President Trump may stem from Israel’s recent targeted killings of several leaders from armed groups across the Middle East.Regarding Israel’s anticipated retaliation against Iran, CNN reported last week that Netanyahu assured US officials that any counterattack would be focused solely on military targets, avoiding oil and nuclear facilities.
In April, following Iran’s initial strike, Prime Minister Netanyahu heeded President Biden’s advice against launching a significant counteroffensive, viewing Israel’s successful interception of Iranian missiles as a victory in itself.However, it remains uncertain how Israel will approach the current situation, which differs significantly from six months ago. In April, Israel’s conflict with Hamas was perceived as a “quagmire,” with Hamas leaders still active within their tunnel network.
Additionally, Israel had not yet opened a second front against Hezbollah on its northern border.Now, after recent incidents involving pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon and the assassination of two prominent Hamas leaders, Israel has regained the element of surprise and holds a clear military advantage. Experts believe that Israeli military commanders and intelligence agencies are unlikely to reduce pressure on their adversaries as they work to restore their reputation and pursue their objectives.
Arab countries are increasingly supporting the US efforts to de-escalate tensions with Iran, as concerns grow over Washington's ability to manage the situation in the Middle East, according to CNN.In recent months, Arab states have leveraged their restored relations with Tehran to help avert a regional conflict. Earlier this month, Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Riyadh, marking the third meeting between Iranian and Saudi officials in a single month.Additionally, the Iranian foreign minister met with King Abdullah II of Jordan and made a rare visit to Egypt to speak with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Araghchi also traveled to Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait to engage with their leaders.“During all my visits, I received assurances that their airspace and territory will not be used for attacks against Iran,” Araghchi stated following his travels.
