US intelligence assesses the two-step attack plan by Iran and its allies

US intelligence believes that the attack plan by Iran and its allied forces to retaliate against Israel will include two steps and may not be similar to the attack in April.

Axios quoted a close source as saying that at a closed meeting inside the Situation Room at the White House on August 5, leaders of US security agencies reported to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris as well as members of the National Security Council about the current tensions in the Middle East.

“The meeting discussed the threat that Iran and its proxies could pose to the Israeli and US militaries in the region,” the source said.

According to US intelligence, the attack plan by Iran and its allies will take place in two steps. First will be an attack from Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, followed by a wave of attacks from Iran and other allies in the region.

However, Washington has not been able to clearly determine the scale, method, and timing of those attacks.

US security and intelligence agencies continue to monitor Iran’s every move closely and are ready to respond to any scenario to protect ally Israel and avoid a conflict that spreads throughout the region.

At yesterday’s meeting, the US President and Vice President were also informed about Washington’s measures to provide military support to Israel in case of an Iranian attack. These measures include necessary support and coordinated actions between the military units of the two countries.

Previously, the Pentagon confirmed deploying additional aircraft and warships to the Mediterranean to guard against the risk of Iran attacking Israel.

Politico magazine quoted American experts knowledgeable about Middle East issues as saying that there are two scenarios for how Iran will retaliate against Israel.

According to retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, Iran will not repeat the attack on Israel in April, which mainly used drones and missiles. Iran’s attack was quickly neutralized by Israel and its allies, with 99% of the missiles and drones shot down.

“The US Air Force and other nations have significantly degraded the Iranian weapons before they reach Jordanian airspace, and Israel will simply take care of the rest,” Montgomery said. He predicted that this time, Iran would use medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to attack.

In the second scenario, Iran’s retaliation could be a coordinated attack with proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Israel would then face an attack from multiple directions.

“This time, Iran will seek to inflict real damage to force Israel to stop attacking Hezbollah targets or take action similar to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran,” commented Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security.

To date, Israel has neither denied nor confirmed its involvement in the assassination of the Hamas leader.

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