Wagner rebellion: Attempts to remove the “detonator” in the 89th minute of the President of Belarus

In the midst of the very tense situation in the South of Russia due to the rebellion of tycoon Wagner, the President of Belarus continuously communicated between the parties to deftly help remove the “detonator” in the 89th minute.

The “revolt” of private military tycoon Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin unfolded very quickly, making the whole world watch closely.

The situation seemed to be about to suffocate when the Governor of the Lipetsk region of Russia on the afternoon of June 24 local time confirmed that Wagner forces had entered this area and were heading to Moscow. The Lipetsk region is more than 400km from the capital and according to Prigozhin himself, Wagner’s vanguard was about 200km from Moscow.

At a critical moment as Wagner troops closed in on Moscow, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko became a key figure in turning the tide.

After a long time of communication, President Lukashenko and Prigozhin reached an agreement “not to allow bloodshed on Russian soil”. Prigozhin agreed to stop Wagner forces’ activities on Russian soil and take further steps to reduce tensions.

Some analysts say that the key to President Lukashenko’s successful bloodless reconciliation “is the optimal balanced solution for all parties involved. If bloodshed occurs, all parties will be “lose-lose” or even “three losers” and no one can get what they want.

According to BelTA, Russian President Putin informed about the situation in the country in a phone call with his counterpart Lukashenko on June 24. The two heads of state agreed to act together.

After President Lukashenko further clarified the situation through his own channels, he had a phone call with Prigozhin with the consent of President Putin.

As for why President Lukashenko? Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that “the problem is that President Lukashenko personally has known Prigozhin for a long time, about 20 years, and it is his personal proposal to coordinate with President Putin”.

After that, President Lukashenko spoke on the phone with President Putin and informed him of the situation of negotiations with Prigozhin. The Russian President expressed his support and thanks to President Lukashenko.

So what does Prigozhin really want? The reason that this former prisoner was able to become a big boss in the food industry, then become a tycoon, and head of Russia’s largest private military force, is not only thanks to luck but also the ability to control and catch the exact moment.

This time was no exception, the conflict between Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Ministry was only part of the cause of the mutiny crisis.

Wagner has great power but is outside the system, which is a huge potential threat to the existing order in Russia. Moreover, Prigorzhin also gained considerable political prestige.

Some analysts have long questioned the fate of Prigozhin and the Wagner organization, saying that he is trying to convert his “military capital” into “political capital”, in order to gain political status. higher value.

It is under such circumstances that President Putin signed a decree in early March of this year to legally regulate and restrict the companies involved from engaging in the implementation of defense orders and promoting their participation.

The Russian Defense Ministry on June 10 announced that all volunteer groups participating in special military operations must sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense before July 1 to participate in the war.

Based on this logic, observers have predicted that 2023 could be Wagner’s last year. Under such circumstances, for Prigozhin, it was more important to consider how to get out than to hold Wagner.

The armed uprising on June 23 is a prime example of taking small things for big profits, embodying pragmatism to the fullest extent. Instead of waiting and holding hands, Prigozhin seemed to retreat and look for a turning point.

However Moscow reached a compromise, the timing was supposed to be moderate, bloodless. Once bloodshed occurs, the nature of the whole incident will completely change, and Prigozhin’s political prestige and accumulated capital may also be lost.

So Prigozhin, who had been in politics for more than half of his life, chose to make a sudden change.

“Wagner’s soldiers did not shed a single drop of blood during the march, but now the time for possible bloodshed has come and as such, the Russians may suffer ‘fraternity’.” . Therefore our forces are returning to their original barracks,” Prigozhin said in a statement about the decision to withdraw.

Video circulating on social media shows Prigozhin smiling and sitting in a car leaving the city of Rostov-on-Don on the evening of June 24.

The press secretary of the Russian President Peskov has announced that the criminal case against Prigozhin will be withdrawn and he will travel to Belarus.

In addition, Wagner members who initially refused to join the uprising would be contracted to serve with the Russian Ministry of Defense, and Wagner members who joined the rebellion would not be held accountable for their achievements in the war. military campaign in Ukraine.

Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said that Putin had telephone conversations with Belarusian President Lukashenko, Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and other leaders. Information time related events in Russia.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also announced on social media that he had spoken with the foreign ministers of the G7 and the high representative for foreign and security policy of the European Union, to discuss the situation. in Russia. The United States will work with its allies and partners in close coordination.

However, the impact of this incident could continue, such as whether there will be a personnel adjustment in the Russian Ministry of Defense and whether the incident affects the special military operations of the Russian military in Ukraine. 

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