In response to escalating regional tensions, the United States is reportedly deploying its advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) ballistic missile defense system to Israel.
The potential deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system aims to enhance Israel’s missile defense capabilities in anticipation of large-scale Iranian ballistic missile strikes, particularly if Israel retaliates against Operation True Promise II.Iranian officials have explicitly warned that any further military provocations from Israel and its allies would provoke a “crushing” response.
Many military analysts suggest that the THAAD deployment indicates the inadequacy of Israel’s much-publicized air defense systems against advanced Iranian missiles, as evidenced in recent confrontations.THAAD provides a more sophisticated ballistic missile defense solution compared to Israel’s existing systems, such as Arrow-3, Arrow-2, and David’s Sling, although it comes at a significantly higher cost, according to military experts and strategists.
A key component of the THAAD system is its X-Band AN/TPY-2 radar, an advanced ballistic missile defense sensor already utilized by the Israeli military.Earlier this week, Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB aired footage showing the transportable Raytheon X-band radar, part of the THAAD system, being targeted by Iranian forces moments before a wave of missiles struck Israeli military sites during Operation True Promise II.
The deployment of additional early warning radars is designed to create redundancy in Israel’s missile defense system in case some are destroyed by Iranian precision-strike ballistic missiles. This redundancy is considered crucial, especially following the advanced Iranian missile strikes that led to a significant failure of Israel’s missile defense system on October 1.
Iran’s Kheibar Shekan-1 and Kheibar Shekan-2 aero-ballistic missiles successfully breached Israel’s much-publicized air defenses, notably the Arrow-3 and David’s Sling systems.The Kheibar Shekan-1 evaded the Arrow-3 system, which operates outside the atmosphere, by flying below its engagement envelope. By the time it came within the range of the Arrow-2 system, it was flying too low to be intercepted effectively. Additionally, its evasive maneuvers allowed it to defeat the David’s Sling system with ease.In contrast, THAAD presents a significant advantage by enabling engagements at lower altitudes than either Arrow-3 or Arrow-2, thanks to its advanced kill vehicle designed for lower atmospheric operations.
This capability may enhance THAAD’s effectiveness against the Kheibar Shekan-1, according to some military experts.However, the situation changes with the Kheibar Shekan-2, which boasts a longer range of 1,800 kilometers, compared to the Kheibar Shekan-1’s 1,450-kilometer range. The Kheibar Shekan-2’s more aerodynamic glide vehicle allows it to “trade” its extended range for low-altitude gliding, enabling it to remain below THAAD’s engagement envelope, especially at altitudes under 35 kilometers.
The Kheibar Shekan-2 missile’s design allows it to bypass the THAAD system and effectively reach its intended targets. Although this maneuver creates significant heat stress on the missile’s glide vehicle, it serves as a viable method for evading THAAD and could potentially strike key targets, including THAAD batteries themselves.While Iran might choose not to target the THAAD batteries directly, given that American personnel operate them, it could focus on defeating the system by remaining outside its engagement range.
Alternatively, military analysts suggest that Iran may consider targeting the forces operating the batteries, which would signal direct American involvement in Israeli actions against Iran.Both the Kheibar Shekan-1 and Kheibar Shekan-2 pose credible threats to THAAD. The Kheibar Shekan-1, in particular, could defeat the system by targeting sites near the edge of THAAD’s engagement envelope, which becomes more limited when dealing with aero-ballistic missiles operating within the atmosphere.Despite THAAD’s advanced capabilities, its high cost constrains the number of available interceptors, especially in comparison to the extensive size of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal.
Consequently, THAAD’s role in Israel’s defense may be more symbolic, primarily providing additional radar support and protection for high-priority sites, such as Nevatim Airbase, against less advanced Iranian missile threats. However, its effectiveness significantly declines when confronted with more sophisticated threats like the Kheibar Shekan-2.