Iran May Pursue Nuclear Weapons as Deterrent Weakens

Israel seems to have demonstrated that Iran’s two key deterrents—ballistic missiles and Hezbollah in Lebanon—may not be as formidable as once believed. The spotlight now shifts to whether Iran will proceed with its nuclear program to counter its largest regional adversary.

For months, Iranian officials have indicated that the country has gained much of the knowledge required to develop nuclear weapons and may reevaluate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s longstanding two-decade commitment to abstaining from acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

In late September, Fereydoun Abbasi, the former head of Iran’s atomic agency, stated that Tehran could potentially start producing weapons-grade uranium enriched to 90%.

U.S. officials have stated that Iran could convert its existing stockpile of 60% enriched uranium into weapons-grade material in less than two weeks.Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran had agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the easing of Western sanctions.

However, since the U.S. withdrew from the agreement in 2018, Iran has resumed and advanced its nuclear efforts, bringing it closer to the capability to develop nuclear weapons.“As Iran’s capabilities diminish compared to Israel’s, Tehran will be compelled to create new deterrents, including expanding its nuclear program.

What we are witnessing is Iran facing increased pressure to accelerate its nuclear initiatives and signal that it is no longer pursuing a ‘peaceful’ agenda,” said Gregory Brew, senior Iran and energy analyst at the Eurasia Group consultancy.

How Close Is Iran to Developing Nuclear Weapons?

Iran currently operates nearly 13,000 centrifuges, many of which are advanced models. While it asserts that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, it is the only non-nuclear weapons state enriching uranium to 60%. Uranium enriched to 90% is suitable for nuclear weapons.To produce weapons-grade enriched uranium, the material must be converted from gas to solid form through a chemical process.

The solid uranium then needs to be melted and shaped into hemispherical forms using high-precision machinery. Iran resumed its solid uranium activities in 2021.According to the latest data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran now possesses enough near-weapons-grade enriched uranium for nearly four nuclear weapons.

Additionally, the country has reduced international monitoring activities mandated by the 2015 nuclear deal.In mid-2023, the United States indicated that Iran had started working toward building a nuclear bomb. With limited international oversight, detecting Iran’s weaponization efforts would become increasingly difficult, and any discoveries would take longer to verify. Some experts believe that Iran could produce a simple nuclear device in just a few months.

Possibility of an Israeli Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities

Israel has previously engaged in sabotage operations against Iran’s nuclear program but has not yet taken steps to completely eliminate Tehran’s uranium enrichment efforts. However, recent attacks demonstrate Israel’s ability to penetrate deep into Iranian ranks, including an airstrike that killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

If Tehran accelerates its nuclear activities, Israel may consider targeting Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently stated that Iran made a “huge mistake” by launching missiles at Israel and warned that Tehran would face consequences. He emphasized that “there is no place in the Middle East that Israel cannot reach.”Hezbollah, regarded as Iran’s primary insurance policy, has been weakened by Israel’s recent military campaigns targeting its weapon stockpiles and the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut.

Another significant concern is Iran’s estimated stockpile of at least 3,000 ballistic missiles. While nearly 200 missiles fired at Israel on October 1 managed to breach its air defenses, they did not inflict major damage.Following Iran’s direct missile attack on Israel in April, which involved more than 300 missiles and drones, Israel retaliated by destroying air defense batteries located just 20 kilometers from Iran’s Natanz nuclear facilities.As of now, Israel seems hesitant to act unilaterally against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The Biden administration has indicated it will ensure serious consequences for Iran’s recent attacks but is cautious about escalating tensions, especially with the upcoming November presidential election.While Israeli airstrikes could potentially damage Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites, completely dismantling the country’s nuclear program would pose a considerable challenge for Tel Aviv. The effectiveness of Israeli strikes on Iran’s new underground facilities at Natanz or the Fordow site, which is built into a mountainside, remains uncertain.

A High-Stakes Gamble

An attack that only delays Iran’s nuclear program by months or a year would be a considerable risk. Iranian officials have previously warned that such an action could lead them to abandon the treaty allowing international monitoring of their nuclear activities.“The critical question is whether Iran would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and expel international observers,” said Eric Brewer, vice president of the Nuclear Material Security Program in Washington.According to Michael Horowitz, director of intelligence at the Israel-based consulting firm Le Beck, Iran may choose to continue its gradual approach toward acquiring nuclear weapons.

“Iran will prioritize its internal security before taking any drastic or risky steps, such as building a bomb,” Horowitz explained.Accelerating its nuclear weapons program also presents political challenges. President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to pursue diplomacy to persuade the West to ease sanctions on Iran’s struggling economy, which could hinge on Iran halting its high-level uranium enrichment and permitting IAEA inspectors access.“I don’t believe Iran would decide to retaliate without some internal consensus regarding its nuclear program.

This doesn’t mean they will fully commit to a nuclear weapons program, but it would likely enhance their ability to develop one quickly if necessary,” said Nicole Grajewski, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Iran, nuclear weapons, Israel, attack, international monitoring, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, uranium enrichment, sanctions, Masoud Pezeshkian, internal security, political risks, Eric Brewer, Michael Horowitz, Nicole Grajewski, nuclear policy